A new breakthrough has been made in the issue of natural gas price reform that has attracted much attention. According to sources inside the oil group, the reform plan of the natural gas pricing mechanism has completed the consultation with the three major oil companies and basically established a new model for pricing based on the weighted ratio of imported natural gas and domestic natural gas. The scheme of “Old Price, Old Price, New Price†that has been implemented for many years and listed as one of the price reform programs has been rejected. In the new pricing plan, industrial gas and civil gas will still implement the classification guidance price.
Lin Boqiang, an energy economist, said that in the pricing of weight ratios, the vast majority of domestic natural gas markets currently use domestic natural gas, so the weight of domestic natural gas will be relatively large, while the weight of foreign natural gas will be relatively small. Market participants predict that natural gas price increases are expected to be 10%-20%.
Natural gas price changes gradually approaching Market participants generally predict that natural gas price reform is imperative.
According to sources inside the oil group, the reform plan of the natural gas pricing mechanism has completed the consultation with the three major oil companies and basically established a new model for pricing based on the weighted ratio of imported natural gas and domestic natural gas.
In fact, the signal on the third price reform of natural gas was continuously released. As early as May 25 this year, the Chinese government website announced the "Notice of the State Council Approved Development and Reform Commission's Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Economic System in 2009." The draft price reform of natural gas has been submitted to the State Council.
In 2007, the National Development and Reform Commission formulated the "Opinions on Deepening Price Reform and Promoting Resource Conservation and Environmental Protection," and clearly stated that it would take two to three years to gradually increase the price of natural gas. The annual increase rate should not exceed 8%.
The urgency of price reforms stems from the fact that China's natural gas consumption needs to import large quantities of natural gas in the future. It is expected that China's natural gas consumption will reach 320 billion square meters by 2030, mainly through pipeline imports and LN G (liquefied natural gas).
In 2008, China imported LN G 4.44 billion cubic meters. West-East Gas Pipeline II is expected to be completed and put into operation in the western part of 2009, and it will be completed in 2011, of which 10 billion cubic meters of Guangdong will be transported each year. In the future, more natural gas will be imported from neighboring countries, and the cost of overseas natural gas imports will be greater than that of domestically produced natural gas. For example, the average gas price of PetroChina West-East Gas Pipeline is 0.48 yuan/m3, and the price of Turkmenistan natural gas imported from the second line of West-East Gasoline to the Chinese border has exceeded 2 yuan/m3, exceeding that of West-East Gas Transmission. The price of end-users after arriving in Shanghai. It is expected that the country may issue a natural gas price reform plan before the end of this year.
Reducing the spread of natural gas at home and abroad, perfecting the mechanism for the formation of natural gas prices, and gradually straightening out the price-relation relationship with alternative energy sources have become the focus of the latest natural gas price reform.
In history, the country has twice adjusted the price of natural gas. On December 26, 2005, the government carried out a reform of the natural gas pricing mechanism. Two sets of natural gas prices have been set, and the gas price (low price) will be brought into line with the second-grade gas price in 3-5 years. The second-line guidance price is adjusted annually based on the five-year weighted average price changes of crude oil, LPG and coal prices, each time not exceeding +/-8%. At the same time, it also notified that the ex-factory price of natural gas should be appropriately raised nationwide, with an increase of 50-150 yuan per 1,000 cubic meters, or an increase of 8%-10%. In November 2007, the Development and Reform Commission raised the industrial gas price by 0.4 yuan/cubic meter, and other users' gas prices remained unchanged. The increase in industrial gas prices is about 15%.
The price of natural gas in Guangdong is higher than the development of the national gas in Guangdong. At present, there is a pattern of multiple gas sources for the Second West-to-West Line, Sichuan-to-Guangdong, two offshore, and five coastal LN G projects.
Currently used natural gas in Guangdong mainly comes from Australia's LN G. The price of domestic natural gas is relatively cheap, while international natural gas adopts international prices, which are determined by the supply of both parties in the international market. Therefore, prices are relatively high.
Zhao Xiuguang, the joint execution office of the LN G station line project, revealed to reporters: “With Australia signing a gas agreement, LN G prices are capped at US$25/barrel and US$15/barrel is the lower limit, and gas prices can follow this interval. The international crude oil price, exchange rate, and other factors will fluctuate. "This 25-year signed purchase-and-purchase contract is provided by Australia's northwestern continental shelf company A LN G to the Guangdong LN G station line.
At present, Guangzhou's natural gas price is 3.45 yuan/cubic meter and Foshan is 3.85 yuan/cubic meter. Compared to Beijing's 2.25 yuan per cubic meter, Guangdong's natural gas prices are the highest in the country.
In addition, there is LN G from Qatar, but the price of the latter is much higher than the former.
On October 18 this year, LN G, which had a total of 216,000 cubic meters of the first vessel from Qatar, arrived at Shenzhen Dapeng LNG Terminal. According to the relevant agreements previously signed by CNOOC and Qatar Natural Gas, Qatar will supply 2 million tons of LN G to Guangdong every year for 25 years. It is reported that the Qatari LN G's CIF is expected to be around RMB 3/m3, plus the operating costs of the receiving station, and the estimated price of the outbound station is around RMB 3.5/m3. At present, the prices of civilian gas in Guangzhou, Foshan and Dongguan are 3.45 yuan/cubic meter, 3.85 yuan/cubic meter and 3.6 yuan/cubic meter, respectively. Visible, Qatar natural gas will bring prices up.
About 10 billion cubic meters of Central Asian natural gas arrived in Guangdong next year. The price of natural gas imported from abroad to Horgos in Xinjiang reached 2.02 yuan, while that of the second-line integrated pipeline reached 1.113 yuan per cubic meter. Therefore, after the completion of the second line of the West-East Gas Pipeline, it is expected that the price of the gate stations in East China and South China will be more than RMB 3/m3, which is much higher than the current gas price.
Natural gas is expected to rise by 10%-20%
Domestic urban natural gas prices include ex-factory price, pipe price, and urban pipe network price. Ex-factory price plus pipe price forms gate station price. The current pricing mechanism is for pricing in upper and middle reaches countries, and the downstream is priced by local governments.
“The natural gas price reform in China, on the one hand, must take into account the actual conditions of domestic natural gas, and on the other hand, it must gradually establish a linkage mechanism with international natural gas prices. Therefore, we have proposed a weighted hybrid pricing of domestic natural gas and international natural gas. "Energy economist Lin Boqiang said.
Lin Boqiang said that the implementation of a weighted mixed pricing mechanism for imports and domestic natural gas can gradually form a unified terminal price across the country, forming a linkage price with international natural gas. In terms of weight, since most of the domestic natural gas market is domestic natural gas, the weight of domestic natural gas will be relatively large, while the weight of foreign natural gas will be relatively small. However, with the increasing import of international natural gas, the weight of international natural gas will increase accordingly.
The determination of the Sichuan ex-factory price reflects the rising trend of natural gas prices.
On June 21, 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the issue of gas prices from Sichuan to East China. The notification stipulated that the natural gas ex-factory price for natural gas from Sichuan-East China was set at 1.28 yuan (including VAT) per cubic meter, and the specific ex-factory price was negotiated within 10% of the upper and lower limits of supply and demand. Sinopec will eventually ex-factory gas prices in accordance with the upper limit of 10% of the floating price, that is, the ex-factory price will be set at 1.408 yuan/cubic meter.
According to the data previously disclosed, the average price of the third-grade ex-factory price of the West-East Gas Pipeline at the first line is RMB 0.693 per cubic meter, and the price of Sichuan Gas at RMB 1.408 per cubic meter is 103% higher than the above-mentioned average price. The average pipeline transportation price for Sichuan-East China Gas Transmission Line is tentatively set at 0.55 Yuan/cubic meter, and the transmission prices to Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai are 0.06 Yuan, 0.16 Yuan, 0.32 Yuan, and 0.76 per cubic meter, respectively. Yuan, 0.81 yuan and 0.84 yuan. The West-East Gas Transmission Pipeline confirmed the price of pipeline transportation in five regions. The pipeline transportation prices to Zhejiang and Shanghai were 0.83 yuan and 0.84 yuan per cubic meter respectively, and the price of natural gas pipelines on the two routes was almost the same. Taking into account the pipeline transmission costs, the price of Sichuan gas after reaching the end-user will undoubtedly be higher.
"In the short term, considering the inflationary pressure and the user's ability to bear, the natural gas price rise is expected to be 10%-20%." China Finance analyst Liang Yaowen made the above judgment.
Lin Boqiang, an energy economist, said that in the pricing of weight ratios, the vast majority of domestic natural gas markets currently use domestic natural gas, so the weight of domestic natural gas will be relatively large, while the weight of foreign natural gas will be relatively small. Market participants predict that natural gas price increases are expected to be 10%-20%.
Natural gas price changes gradually approaching Market participants generally predict that natural gas price reform is imperative.
According to sources inside the oil group, the reform plan of the natural gas pricing mechanism has completed the consultation with the three major oil companies and basically established a new model for pricing based on the weighted ratio of imported natural gas and domestic natural gas.
In fact, the signal on the third price reform of natural gas was continuously released. As early as May 25 this year, the Chinese government website announced the "Notice of the State Council Approved Development and Reform Commission's Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Economic System in 2009." The draft price reform of natural gas has been submitted to the State Council.
In 2007, the National Development and Reform Commission formulated the "Opinions on Deepening Price Reform and Promoting Resource Conservation and Environmental Protection," and clearly stated that it would take two to three years to gradually increase the price of natural gas. The annual increase rate should not exceed 8%.
The urgency of price reforms stems from the fact that China's natural gas consumption needs to import large quantities of natural gas in the future. It is expected that China's natural gas consumption will reach 320 billion square meters by 2030, mainly through pipeline imports and LN G (liquefied natural gas).
In 2008, China imported LN G 4.44 billion cubic meters. West-East Gas Pipeline II is expected to be completed and put into operation in the western part of 2009, and it will be completed in 2011, of which 10 billion cubic meters of Guangdong will be transported each year. In the future, more natural gas will be imported from neighboring countries, and the cost of overseas natural gas imports will be greater than that of domestically produced natural gas. For example, the average gas price of PetroChina West-East Gas Pipeline is 0.48 yuan/m3, and the price of Turkmenistan natural gas imported from the second line of West-East Gasoline to the Chinese border has exceeded 2 yuan/m3, exceeding that of West-East Gas Transmission. The price of end-users after arriving in Shanghai. It is expected that the country may issue a natural gas price reform plan before the end of this year.
Reducing the spread of natural gas at home and abroad, perfecting the mechanism for the formation of natural gas prices, and gradually straightening out the price-relation relationship with alternative energy sources have become the focus of the latest natural gas price reform.
In history, the country has twice adjusted the price of natural gas. On December 26, 2005, the government carried out a reform of the natural gas pricing mechanism. Two sets of natural gas prices have been set, and the gas price (low price) will be brought into line with the second-grade gas price in 3-5 years. The second-line guidance price is adjusted annually based on the five-year weighted average price changes of crude oil, LPG and coal prices, each time not exceeding +/-8%. At the same time, it also notified that the ex-factory price of natural gas should be appropriately raised nationwide, with an increase of 50-150 yuan per 1,000 cubic meters, or an increase of 8%-10%. In November 2007, the Development and Reform Commission raised the industrial gas price by 0.4 yuan/cubic meter, and other users' gas prices remained unchanged. The increase in industrial gas prices is about 15%.
The price of natural gas in Guangdong is higher than the development of the national gas in Guangdong. At present, there is a pattern of multiple gas sources for the Second West-to-West Line, Sichuan-to-Guangdong, two offshore, and five coastal LN G projects.
Currently used natural gas in Guangdong mainly comes from Australia's LN G. The price of domestic natural gas is relatively cheap, while international natural gas adopts international prices, which are determined by the supply of both parties in the international market. Therefore, prices are relatively high.
Zhao Xiuguang, the joint execution office of the LN G station line project, revealed to reporters: “With Australia signing a gas agreement, LN G prices are capped at US$25/barrel and US$15/barrel is the lower limit, and gas prices can follow this interval. The international crude oil price, exchange rate, and other factors will fluctuate. "This 25-year signed purchase-and-purchase contract is provided by Australia's northwestern continental shelf company A LN G to the Guangdong LN G station line.
At present, Guangzhou's natural gas price is 3.45 yuan/cubic meter and Foshan is 3.85 yuan/cubic meter. Compared to Beijing's 2.25 yuan per cubic meter, Guangdong's natural gas prices are the highest in the country.
In addition, there is LN G from Qatar, but the price of the latter is much higher than the former.
On October 18 this year, LN G, which had a total of 216,000 cubic meters of the first vessel from Qatar, arrived at Shenzhen Dapeng LNG Terminal. According to the relevant agreements previously signed by CNOOC and Qatar Natural Gas, Qatar will supply 2 million tons of LN G to Guangdong every year for 25 years. It is reported that the Qatari LN G's CIF is expected to be around RMB 3/m3, plus the operating costs of the receiving station, and the estimated price of the outbound station is around RMB 3.5/m3. At present, the prices of civilian gas in Guangzhou, Foshan and Dongguan are 3.45 yuan/cubic meter, 3.85 yuan/cubic meter and 3.6 yuan/cubic meter, respectively. Visible, Qatar natural gas will bring prices up.
About 10 billion cubic meters of Central Asian natural gas arrived in Guangdong next year. The price of natural gas imported from abroad to Horgos in Xinjiang reached 2.02 yuan, while that of the second-line integrated pipeline reached 1.113 yuan per cubic meter. Therefore, after the completion of the second line of the West-East Gas Pipeline, it is expected that the price of the gate stations in East China and South China will be more than RMB 3/m3, which is much higher than the current gas price.
Natural gas is expected to rise by 10%-20%
Domestic urban natural gas prices include ex-factory price, pipe price, and urban pipe network price. Ex-factory price plus pipe price forms gate station price. The current pricing mechanism is for pricing in upper and middle reaches countries, and the downstream is priced by local governments.
“The natural gas price reform in China, on the one hand, must take into account the actual conditions of domestic natural gas, and on the other hand, it must gradually establish a linkage mechanism with international natural gas prices. Therefore, we have proposed a weighted hybrid pricing of domestic natural gas and international natural gas. "Energy economist Lin Boqiang said.
Lin Boqiang said that the implementation of a weighted mixed pricing mechanism for imports and domestic natural gas can gradually form a unified terminal price across the country, forming a linkage price with international natural gas. In terms of weight, since most of the domestic natural gas market is domestic natural gas, the weight of domestic natural gas will be relatively large, while the weight of foreign natural gas will be relatively small. However, with the increasing import of international natural gas, the weight of international natural gas will increase accordingly.
The determination of the Sichuan ex-factory price reflects the rising trend of natural gas prices.
On June 21, 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the issue of gas prices from Sichuan to East China. The notification stipulated that the natural gas ex-factory price for natural gas from Sichuan-East China was set at 1.28 yuan (including VAT) per cubic meter, and the specific ex-factory price was negotiated within 10% of the upper and lower limits of supply and demand. Sinopec will eventually ex-factory gas prices in accordance with the upper limit of 10% of the floating price, that is, the ex-factory price will be set at 1.408 yuan/cubic meter.
According to the data previously disclosed, the average price of the third-grade ex-factory price of the West-East Gas Pipeline at the first line is RMB 0.693 per cubic meter, and the price of Sichuan Gas at RMB 1.408 per cubic meter is 103% higher than the above-mentioned average price. The average pipeline transportation price for Sichuan-East China Gas Transmission Line is tentatively set at 0.55 Yuan/cubic meter, and the transmission prices to Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai are 0.06 Yuan, 0.16 Yuan, 0.32 Yuan, and 0.76 per cubic meter, respectively. Yuan, 0.81 yuan and 0.84 yuan. The West-East Gas Transmission Pipeline confirmed the price of pipeline transportation in five regions. The pipeline transportation prices to Zhejiang and Shanghai were 0.83 yuan and 0.84 yuan per cubic meter respectively, and the price of natural gas pipelines on the two routes was almost the same. Taking into account the pipeline transmission costs, the price of Sichuan gas after reaching the end-user will undoubtedly be higher.
"In the short term, considering the inflationary pressure and the user's ability to bear, the natural gas price rise is expected to be 10%-20%." China Finance analyst Liang Yaowen made the above judgment.
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