For more than a decade, China's power battery industry has achieved remarkable results. In the downstream of the power battery industry chain, China has become the world's largest consumer market for new energy vehicles. However, the current performance, quality and cost of power battery products are still difficult to meet the needs of the promotion of new energy vehicles, especially in the basic key materials, system integration technology, manufacturing equipment and processes, and the international advanced level still has a large gap.
In order to speed up the development of China's automotive power battery industry and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the new energy vehicle industry, on March 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly announced the promotion of automobile power with the relevant departments such as the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Ministry of Finance. Battery Industry Development Action Plan (hereinafter referred to as the Action Plan). The Action Plan made a scientific plan for the future development goals of the automotive power battery industry, and further clarified the tasks and implementation measures. It can be foreseen that under the impetus of the Action Plan, the performance and quality level of China's automotive power battery products will be further improved, and the automotive power battery industry will be further concentrated and accelerate the survival of the fittest. Perhaps by 2020 or earlier, there will be a leading enterprise with core competitiveness, production and sales scale of more than 40 billion watt-hours.
What are the principles?
The Action Plan clearly stated that it must adhere to four basic principles: adhering to innovation-driven, industrial synergy, green development and open cooperation.
The “innovation drive†emphasizes the need to be market-oriented and enterprises as the mainstay, and strengthen the construction of collaborative innovation systems for production, education and research. We may understand this: China's new energy auto industry and the battery industry's policy-oriented era are coming to an end, letting battery and vehicle companies become the real main players in the market, producing products needed by the market, with technology, products and business models. The innovation of other factors is the driving force to drive the development of the automotive power battery industry.
"Industry synergy" is to look at the automotive power battery industry from the overall and macro perspective, and regard the upstream and downstream of its industrial chain as an organic whole. Industry organizations and industry alliances will play their role as platforms to promote power batteries and materials, parts and components. Equipment, vehicle and other industries are closely linked to promote the coordinated development of the entire industry chain.
“Green Development†vigorously advocates the concept of a whole life cycle, promotes eco-design, promotes the construction of cascade utilization and recycling systems, and achieves low-carbon, recycling and intensive development. The “full life cycle†concept was not mentioned for the first time and was covered in several policies related to power batteries introduced in 2016 and before.
“Open Cooperation†emphasizes that enterprises must have a global perspective, make full use of global resources and markets, participate in international competition, and actively participate in the formulation of international standards and technical regulations. At present, many enterprises in China are participating in international competition. For example, in the Ningde era, passenger vehicles have been provided with power batteries for passenger vehicles.
What goals have been set?
The Action Plan has set five “small goals†in terms of product performance, product safety, industry scale, key materials and components, and high-end equipment. With the 2020 and 2025 as the time nodes, the automotive power battery industry has been developed. To the level these nodes should reach.
Among them, the third goal is to plan the industrial scale of the future automotive power battery, and it is required that by 2020, the total capacity of the power battery industry will exceed 100 billion watt-hours, forming a leading internationally competitive scale with a production and sales scale of over 40 billion watt-hours. enterprise. What does this mean? According to industry statistics, the cost of a 1 GWh power battery for an automotive power battery company is about 750-700 million yuan. The 40 GWh production and sales scale means that it has a planned production capacity of about 50 GWh. About 80% of the planned production capacity, that is, the total investment is about 250 to 35 billion yuan.
Who can become a leading company?
BYD: In February 2017, BYD said in the “Investor Relations Activity Record Form†that it has two power battery production bases in Huizhou and Kengyi, Shenzhen, and currently has a total capacity of 10Gwh. At the same time, BYD is expanding its 6Gwh capacity in the pit area and expects to reach production in 2017. By the end of 2017, BYD has about 16GWh of automotive power battery capacity. This figure is 34GWh away from 50GWh. That is to say, in the years after 2017, BYD needs to invest 170~23.8 billion yuan to meet the "leading enterprise" standard stipulated in the Action Plan.
Ningde era: It is understood that as of the end of 2016, the power battery production capacity of Ningde era is about 7.5GWh, and its investment in the construction of 10GWh lithium battery per year in Xiangyang, Jiangsu, the total production capacity is about 17.5GWh. Coincidentally, the expansion plan announced by Huang Shilin, CEO of Ningde Times in 2016, is also to achieve 50GWH of power battery capacity by 2020. The difference is 32.5GWh. Then, the Ningde era will invest 16.25 billion yuan to 22.75 billion yuan in the next few years.
Waterma: Mr. Rao Yumin, deputy general manager of Waterma, once said that by the end of 2016, all the plants were put into production, and the production capacity of Womat could reach 12GWh. According to this figure, in order to reach the "leading standard" in 2020, Waterma needs to expand production. To increase the production capacity of 38GWh, Waterma needs to increase investment by about 190 to 26.6 billion yuan.
Guoxuan Hi-Tech: On January 19, 2017, the data in Guoxuan High-Tech Investor Activity Record Table shows that the company's existing power battery capacity is about 5.5GWh. The second phase of the 1GWh Wah Shi plant in Nanjing and the 1GWh Wah Shi plant in Tangshan Phase I are currently under construction. It is expected that the upgrade and production line will be completed in mid-2017, and the company will have 8GWh of power battery capacity. This capacity has reached the standards stipulated in the "Regulations for Automotive Power Battery Industry (Draft for Comment), but it is some distance away from the "leading standards" of the Action Plan, and it is estimated that it will require an investment of 210-296 billion yuan.
Lishen Battery: Qin Xingcai, President of Lishen Battery, said that by 2020, the company will expand its annual production capacity to 20GWh. Lishen wants to achieve the "leading standard", and needs to invest 15 to 21 billion yuan on the basis of 2020 production capacity.
From the above analysis, we can see that the Ningde era seems to be closer to the "leading standard" set by the "Action Plan". BYD is a domestic power battery giant, and it is not difficult to invest in the automotive power battery faster than the Ningde era. Tema, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Lishen are slightly farther away from the leading standards. By 2020, which company will become a leading company? Let us wait and see!
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