Recently, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, Shandong, Shanxi and other places have held the first half of the economic situation analysis. Judging from the information displayed at the meeting, generally speaking, local governments have shown that the downward pressure on the economy has increased and steady growth has become more prominent, while expanding investment and securing industries have become the main means. At the same time, the top leaders of many provinces and cities visited Beijing to call on the main leaders of the Ministry of Finance to express their willingness to increase support for the economy of their respective provinces.
Just recently, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said that from a policy point of view, China will not introduce a large-scale fiscal stimulus this year, but rather focus on promoting economic growth and on the premise of keeping the total scale of the fiscal deficit unchanged. Employment, make some fine-tuning of policies.
How does the central and local seemingly dissonant attitude affect the economic situation? Against this background, what kind of market will the commercial vehicle market get out of?
Not too good in the second half
“Recalling the development history of the heavy-duty truck market in recent years, it is not difficult to see that economic stimulus can have an immediate effect on truck sales. For example, the heavy truck sales in 2010 soared to one million vehicles as a result of '4 trillion yuan' investment, because '4 A large part of the 'trillion yuan' was invested in infrastructure construction. With the end of the economic stimulus policy, heavy truck sales have been declining all the way. Although the truck market has improved during the first half of this year, it is undeniable that this increase is very large. To a degree, it depends on the advance consumption of the State IV upgrade, and in the second half of the year, advance consumption leads to a further reduction in market demand, and in addition to policy incentives, the 'troika' of investment, consumption, and exports are not 'forced', and the economy is weak. Heavy truck market will not be very good.†Mr. Ren, the head of the marketing department of a heavy truck company, told reporters: “It is estimated that the heavy truck sales volume this year is about the same as last year, about 600,000 vehicles.â€
Let's look at investment first. Although maintaining rapid growth, the growth rate has gradually declined. In the first half of the year, the country’s fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 18.1 trillion yuan, a nominal increase of 20.1% year-on-year and 0.3% lower than the previous month. In the second half of the year, on the one hand, the Ministry of Finance has made it clear that China will not introduce a large-scale fiscal stimulus this year; on the other hand, local investment capacity is also very limited. Recently, according to the State Council's request, the Audit Commission will audit government debt. Some people had previously estimated that China’s local government debt may exceed 20 trillion yuan, and the central government is facing the risk of providing assistance for local government debt, and high local government debt will hinder the steady growth of China’s economy. At the same time, in the process of auditing local debts, the capacity of local infrastructure investment will be constrained.
Exports are also not optimistic. In June, China’s imports and exports both experienced negative growth, which could be described as “rareâ€: the total value of imports and exports fell by 2% year-on-year, and exports fell by 3.1% year-on-year, the first negative growth in 17 months. "The drop in both import and export data in June exceeded market expectations, especially as exports fell, on the one hand, and on the other hand to combat fake trade and squeeze out moisture. It also has a direct bearing on the rapid appreciation of the renminbi and rising labor costs this year." Zhang Yongjun, researcher at the International Economic Exchange Center believes. "In the second quarter, China's foreign trade import and export growth rate has slowed down significantly, especially in May and June. The current situation of China's foreign trade is facing severe challenges," said Zheng Yuesheng, a spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs and a director of the General Statistics Department.
The consumption of 45.2% of GDP may be the only driving force worth looking forward to. “The key to enhancing consumption lies in the rational distribution of income and the establishment of a comprehensive social security safety net, and one of the core elements of the reform of income distribution is the comprehensive reduction of taxes, including the 'reform of businesses' and the reduction of VAT rates.†Chief Economics, Orient Securities Shao Yu thinks.
The key to the transition is hard
Based on the above analysis, the commercial vehicle market in the second half of the year may have to go through a difficult stage.
“Now is the critical period for China’s transition and structural adjustment, not the critical period for economic growth. In order to ensure economic growth, the government will 'save each other's aid during difficult times in certain industries, and the future of national administrative intervention will not look like In the process of transition, we will certainly eliminate some industries and adjust the structure naturally." Mr Ren said: "China's economy is not a purely market economy, but it is now to be incorporated into the market-oriented rules of the game." In the middle, the process must be very painful."
This is the case with the coal industry. “More than half of the coal mines in Inner Mongolia are in a state of production shutdown. The price of coal is not going up, but the cost of labor, land, and management is rising. The coal mine loses money as soon as it starts. In addition, the lack of work in the coastal areas leads to a reduction in demand for coal resources, and thus also No logistics transportation is required.†Mr. Li, a brand truck dealer in Baotou, told reporters: “In resource-providing provinces like Inner Mongolia, whether logistics or passenger flow are closely related to resource exploitation, truck sales will stagnate as soon as coal mining is encountered. It will also bring about a reduction in people traffic."
Inner Mongolia is only one of the affected areas. In resource-based cities, their GDP has been adversely affected. Zhang Baotong, director of the Shaanxi Provincial Academy of Social Sciences Regional Development and Consultation Center, once stated that the prosperous coal industry in Shaanxi in the past few years could not be sold under the influence of the macro situation, which also led to the fracture of the capital chain of some small coal mines. "If the country's macroeconomic policy remains unchanged, the economy will continue to decline," he said.
The symposium on the analysis of the economic operation of key enterprises in Shanxi Province also showed that the enterprises in the pillar industries such as coal, metallurgy, coking, and chemical industries have generally maintained a stable operation trend in the first half of the year, but the production and business operations of the enterprises were generally difficult, especially the lack of market demand and overcapacity. The price of products continued to fall, and the economic efficiency of enterprises fell.
At present, Guizhou, Liaoning, Anhui, Inner Mongolia, and other provinces have many situations in which small and medium-sized coal mines have been suspended or stopped production. Many enterprises in Henan, Shandong, and Hebei provinces have also closed down or have withdrawn from the market.
Emission standards upgrade is another major challenge for the commercial vehicle industry. “Whether it is a country, an enterprise, or a common people, everyone has unanimously recognized the importance of environmental protection, and the exhaust emission standards for heavy-duty diesel vehicles have also been upgraded, and the general trend of energy conservation and emission reduction will not change in the future. However, the process of upgrading from previous emissions can be It can be seen that many policies and measures cannot be used in China, and even if they are gradually adjusted on the right track, the concept of stealing will often occur. It is both a problem in the commercial vehicle industry and a society in transition. A microcosm of the problem. With the deepening of contradictions and highlights, the adjustment of the economic structure is imminent, but in this process, the commercial vehicle industry will feel very hard to accept." A truck enterprise market analyst Mr. Wang told reporters.
Rely on the company itself to weigh
“The poor market will bring the industry to reshuffle. In this critical and difficult period, as a commercial vehicle company, it is necessary to weigh its own advantages, existing problems, and the opportunities that the market has set aside to grasp this balance on its own. Can not be too restrictive, can not let go.†Mr. Ren believes: “In production, for example, heavy truck products need to be shipped in advance, because after receiving an order, production often lags behind, can not be delivered on time, lose customers; but the volume of goods Can not be too big, especially in the off-season, inventory means the occupation of funds, which in turn limits the liquidity of corporate funds.Especially when the market is bleak, we must pay more attention to control the inventory, and some well-established companies have adjusted since last year. , reduce inventory, squeeze out the moisture in the sales channels, this year's pressure is not so great."
The intense market competition has also made commercial vehicle companies more aware. “Every company has its own advantages and highlights, and some companies can meet the market demand to make their highlights more prominent, such as lightweight products and new energy vehicles, in the final analysis, the future direction is energy-saving emission reduction.†Industry sources believe.
According to the Standing Conference of the State Council held on July 12, China's support for new energy vehicles will not change in the next few years, and development thinking is also a precursor to the public sector.
In addition, the “Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)†also proposes that by 2015, the cumulative production and sales volume of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will strive to reach 500,000; by 2020, pure electric The production capacity of automobiles and plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 2 million, and the cumulative production and sales volume exceeded 5 million. The development of fuel cell vehicles and automotive hydrogen energy industries coincided with international development.
Zhang Xin, an analyst of Guosen Securities' new energy industry, stated that from the current perspective, the promotion of domestic new energy vehicles is still concentrated in the public transport sector dominated by buses and taxis, and current sales are still lacking. However, with the introduction of new models for automobile companies and follow-up of domestic charging facilities, it is expected that sales of new energy vehicles will maintain a relatively high growth rate in the coming years.
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