According to statistics released by the China Automotive Industry Association, China's auto production reached 22,116,800 units in 2013, a year-on-year increase of 14.76%. In this better-than-expected good market environment, in stark contrast to traditional automobiles, the annual output of new energy vehicles is only 17,553 vehicles. Although it has four years of policy support, the development of new energy vehicles in China still has no breakthrough.
Battery technology is not a stumbling block <br> <br> development of new energy vehicles in 2013 global conference, Pang Yicheng admits: "2013 new energy vehicles, the market did not open the door, from the number of statistical point of view, in 2013 China's new energy auto sales The gap between the data and the United States and Japan is further widening."
It is understood that in the first three quarters of 2013, the sales of new energy vehicles in the United States increased by 114% year-on-year, reaching a scale of 66,000 vehicles. Sales volume of new energy vehicles in Japan increased by 131% year-on-year, and sales of new energy vehicles in France, Germany, and other countries also increased significantly.
China's new energy vehicles began to be promoted by the government in 2009. Under the strong subsidies, the overall market has not seen rapid development. Fang Jianhua, general manager of Hefei Guoxuan Hi-Tech Power Co., Ltd., believes that the current impediment to the development of new energy in China is not due to the “battery technology and infrastructure†people often say. He believes there are two biggest constraints: ideological issues and interests.
He further explained that the biggest misconception among consumers in thinking is to compare new energy vehicles with traditional cars, and that the attitude of being unaccustomed to new things has also caused domestic car companies to run at the wrong end; while “interest problems†are due to current domestic traditions. The car market is still in a non-stop phase of making money, resulting in the reluctance of state-owned enterprises to invest too much effort and financial resources in emerging areas.
"The most advanced may not be the best." Fang Jianhua believes that the emergence of electric vehicles is subversive. Do not follow the pace of traditional car development. Car companies need to do more to try. "I didn't know what to do." He took Tesla as an example. "The motors and batteries used by Tesla are not the most advanced technologies, but he integrated the mature products with innovative technologies and made them classic."
Private area? Public transport are still exploring how new energy vehicles can enter the homes of ordinary people? This topic has been hung by expert media dealers for many years. However, from a practical point of view, let alone the private sector, that is, the public domain that the country has always advocated has not yet reached the expected popularity.
Taking the best Shenzhen in China, the Shenzhen Bus Group has promoted new energy buses in 2009 for more than five years. There are 5,635 new energy vehicles that have been promoted in Shenzhen. The applications are in public transport. In areas such as private cars, there are also hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles. The models are relatively wide but the number is still limited.
There are still many difficulties, mainly because of high costs. Li Yongsheng, chairman of the Shenzhen Bus Group, said: "The new energy vehicles have high prices and the government's financial support needs to be deepened." Because the promotion of new energy vehicles are all subsidized by the government, the bus basically relies on the government. The government is often one to one. "We hope the government will continue to increase support," he said.
As a battery manufacturer, Fang Jianhua believes that public areas, logistics vehicles and urban mobility vehicles are the three areas that are most suitable for the early development of new energy vehicles. “Because buses and logistics vehicles have the least dependence on infrastructure, they contribute the most to environmental pollution.†At the same time, the use of new energy vehicles is beneficial to reducing operating costs in these areas and is very cost-effective for users and bus groups.
At present, apart from the high cost of restricting the promotion of the public domain, local protectionism is also one aspect. BYD encountered this problem when promoting its electric buses. Eventually, they could only “curve ahead†through mergers or modes of cooperation with local car companies. For many years they wanted to enter the Guangzhou market, but it has not yet been realized, even Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The same belongs to Guangdong, adjacent to 100 kilometers.
Investors' concerns in the spring of policies It is good to announce in 2013 the "Notice on Continuing the Work of Promoting and Using New Energy Vehicles" that the number of foreign brands in the demonstration cities or regions must not be less than 30%. , may not set or disguised obstacles to limit the purchase of foreign brand vehicles. This to a certain extent suppressed the "local protectionism", but the concrete effect depends on the actual situation.
Compared with the policies implemented in 2009, the new subsidy policy has been generally praised by the industry as “more practicalâ€. Many people in the industry believe that the promotion of new energy vehicles is really changing from “planned subsidies†to “market-based subsidiesâ€. And optimistic forecasts will “detonate†the market around 2015 and 2016. However, some investors believe that if China's new energy automotive industry still holds the opportunity to enjoy state subsidies forever and enjoy such a market forever, it may not develop much.
The prolonged period of market cultivation and the unclear policies and routes in the previous period have also presented great difficulties for investors. However, investors are generally optimistic about the new energy sector. The main concern comes from the timing of entry. Pan Xiaofeng, Managing Director of Jinsha Ventures, believes that “the hardest thing for our industry participants is not to find the best technology, nor to find the best team, but to find the right time, too early. We became martyrs. It was too late for us to eat fat."
He believes that now from the perspective of investment should be a very good window period, in the favorable policy environment, the new energy market in the near future will have ten times or more growth.
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