Expressway charging facilities Looking at the overall situation, compared with the rapid development of the new energy automobile market, the charging infrastructure construction has not been correspondingly developed. The charging stations/pile construction cost is high, the yield is low, the quantity is not enough, the layout is irrational, and the interconnection and communication are not reached. If the series of issues is not properly resolved as soon as possible, the future of the development of new energy vehicles in China will be worrisome.
First, the growth of charging facilities can not keep up with the growth of new energy vehicle market
Judging from the scale of production and sales, the proportion of China's new energy vehicles in the global market has exceeded 50%; from the perspective of corporate competition, BYD and Yutong have become the global sales champions of new energy passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles respectively; from the perspective of product technology , The vehicle driving range, battery energy density, and platform/lightweight have been rapidly improved.
However, while seeing the achievements made by the new energy auto industry, we should also see the inadequacies of development. From the perspective of the entire industry chain, China's new energy automotive industry is huge at the front end, middle end, etc. Progress, but this does not obscure the actual situation of its back-end lag.
In the area of ​​charging infrastructure, China currently has a total of 180,000 public charging piles, plus the number of privately-charged piles. The total ratio of car piles is about 4:1, which is far from meeting the normal charging needs of new energy vehicles. In the front-end and middle-end of the industry, the bottleneck of the back-end lag is increasingly prominent.
Second, the development of charging infrastructure has long been lagging behind
The contradiction between the rapid expansion of the production and sales scale of new energy vehicles in China and the lagging behind in infrastructure construction is like a cold day. It is a long-standing malady.
The data shows that although the number of charging piles is increasing rapidly, the ratio of the vehicle piles has also increased to the current 4:1 year by year. However, it cannot be overlooked that the growth scale of new energy vehicles is still significantly higher than the increase in the number of charging piles. The gap between the car piles is still expanding. Taking statistics for 2015 and 2016 as an example, the number of public charging piles has increased by 100,000, but the number of new energy vehicles has increased enough by more than 170,000 vehicles, still not achieving a 1:1 increase in the number of public energy vehicles. Increased the gap of 70,000.
Further in-depth look at the local development and found that the situation is still not optimistic. By the end of 2016, the number of new energy vehicles in major provinces and cities had exceeded the number of public charging piles, and the ratio of car piles varied from 3:1 to 6:1. In areas with advanced development such as Beijing and Shanghai, new energy vehicles still cannot find sufficient supply points, and there is still a clear phenomenon of charging inconvenience. The bitterness and complaints of owners of new energy vehicles are always flooded with various social issues. software.
In contrast, by the end of 2016, there were 100,000 gas stations built in the country, which could provide more than 1.2 million fuelling stations at the same time. The average refueling process can be completed in 3 minutes per vehicle. Based on this calculation, in one day's time, the national gas station can refuel up to 1.2 million * 24 hours * 60 minutes / 3 minutes = 576 million vehicles, even if the deduction of 12 hours at night can also be more than 200 million at the same time Car refueling achieved a 1:1 ratio.
Obviously, the huge convenience advantages of a fuel truck are as big as a mountain in front of new energy vehicles. It must be difficult to cross.
Third, the policy portfolio intends to solve the lag problem of charging facilities
1. National policy
Confronted with the lag of charging infrastructure construction, in October 2015, the state had issued a program document on the development of charging infrastructure—Guidance on Accelerating the Construction of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (Guobanfa [2015] 73 No.) clarified the overall requirements for the construction of charging facilities, and put forward 18 policy requirements from four aspects: increasing the intensity of construction, speeding up the cultivation of the market, strengthening the supporting support, and implementing the organizational implementation.
Immediately afterwards, the National Energy Administration issued a guidance document for the development of charging infrastructure, “Guidelines for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (2015-2020)â€, and proposed the planning and construction targets for charging facilities of different types and subregions from 2015 to 2020. Among them, it is proposed that by 2020, there will be more than 12,000 new centralized charging and recharging stations and more than 4.8 million decentralized charging stations to meet the charging needs of 5 million new energy vehicles.
At the same time, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Development, the National Standards Committee and other departments also organized and revised the newly revised "Electric Vehicle Conductive Charging System Part 1: General Requirements", "Electric Vehicle Conductive Charging Connections Part 1: General Requirements," and "Electric Vehicles Conductive Charging Connecting Devices Part 2: AC Charging Interfaces, "Connecting Devices for Conductive Charging of Electric Vehicles Part 3: DC Charging Interfaces," "Communication Protocols between Non-Car-Conduction Conductive Chargers for Electric Vehicles and Battery Management Systems" Five other national standards for charging interfaces and communication protocols for electric vehicles. The intention is to solve the problem of inconsistency in standards and interface incompatibility between different brands and achieve interconnection and interoperability.
2. Local policies
Driven by the central government's guidance and actual development needs, local governments have also increased their emphasis on charging infrastructure, and have successively introduced a number of local policies to promote the construction of local charging infrastructure. In the relevant policies, the subsidy policy is the most common. For example, the Wuhan government grants a financial subsidy of up to 3 million yuan per station to the DC charging station builders. This is not a small amount for local finance.
It seems that under the concerted efforts of all levels of government, the charging infrastructure needed by new energy vehicles has been gearing up and is about to explode at full speed, opening up the last Rendu pulse to help the industry rise to the next level. However, the facts are not so optimistic.
IV. The construction of charging facilities is still in deep trouble
The construction of new energy vehicle charging infrastructure is not only not optimistic, but also more urgent and difficult than ever before, and is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
1. The high construction cost of public charging piles and the long recovery period have not been effectively improved.
The construction cost of public charging stations is mainly composed of equipment, land, and power capacity expansion. Taking a small-sized charging station (10-15 charging machines) in a second-tier city as an example, the equipment cost will probably need more than 3 million, and the power capacity will also increase. Needs 100-200 million range, coupled with land costs and operating costs in the later period, tens of millions of investment can not beat. Even in accordance with Wuhan's subsidy policy, it can only get more than 1 million subsidy, still need to invest more than 8 million investment.
According to the charge service fee of 0.6 yuan/kWh, a pure electric vehicle with a driving range of 250 kilometers will earn only about 20 yuan at a charging station after a full charge, basically relying on 400,000 vehicles. It is still an optimistic estimate that the actual conditions are estimated to be 50-600,000 vehicles/time.
Obviously, most charging stations can't achieve such high performance within a few years. They can only rely on parking fees, advertising, and other ways to make money. Charging service fees has become a subsidiary income, no way, who is called a cup of water?
In fact, this problem has a long history, but it has not been improved.
2. Private car purchase has become the main force, but the construction process of private charging piles is particularly lagging behind
At present, the proportion of sales of new energy passenger vehicles is already close to 70% of the total, and this figure is still rising. In this situation, private car purchase has become the main demand for sales of new energy vehicles. The upper insurance data for the first half of 2017 shows that the proportion of individuals who purchase new energy vehicles has reached 88.5%.
Obviously, of the 5 million new energy vehicles by 2020, the vast majority will be private users. For such users, it is not the public charging pile that can really improve their charging experience, but the private charging pile built by them. The current data shows that the number of private charging piles is less than 30,000, which is roughly the same as the shortage of public charging piles.
Even so, the emphasis placed on the construction of private charging piles in most places has only stayed on the surface and has not been implemented in the same way as public charging piles. Different from the difficulty of public charging piles, the private building is facing the kicking of the ball in the real estate and national power departments. It often takes time to work hard and can't do anything. Even though the “Guidelines for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (2015-2020)†stipulate the need to increase property coordination, it is proposed to formulate a national model for the management of charging infrastructure for private users' residences, but this is only a guideline. There is no mandatory impetus, and so far this problem has not been solved.
In particular, the transformation of the old district is even more difficult, especially in the case of power capacity expansion. Nobody can tell why it has been, so it has been shelved pending. It is precisely the owners of large and old districts that are the future of new energy. The main group of car demand.
3, heavy urban areas do not emphasize the suburbs, heavy cities do not re-high speed, greatly limiting the sales potential of the vehicle
Judging from the local policies that have been released so far, most local governments still focus on the urban areas, and they do not pay much attention to high-speed or suburban areas. In the case that the autonomous pure electric vehicle continues to exceed 300 kilometers, the lack of high-speed charging will make new energy vehicles become “short legs†in the home.
Even if a few warriors can overcome long-distance driving difficulties, it is undeniable that most people will give up new energy vehicles because of the inconvenience of long-distance travel. This phenomenon will become more prominent in the next 2-3 years because new energy vehicles are replacing traditional fuel vehicles instead of motorcycles or tricycles.
4, poor charging experience, when the full interconnection and interoperability reach a surviving doubt
Although the country introduced a new national standard for charging and also passed the “Implementation Plan for the New National Standard of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Interface†to upgrade to “mandatory standard†in disguise, it still only completed the interconnection of the charging interface and the interconnection of charge transaction settlement. The interconnection and interconnection of the charging service information is still unfinished. A dozen or so APPs on a mobile phone can hardly navigate the past half of the charge and half of it is bad. This is a common occurrence. It can be said that the charging experience of consumers is still poor. According to legend, the lethality is huge.
To put it plainly, new energy vehicles want to become "a successor" or "followed by weaknesses." Charging infrastructure is a barrier that could not be overcome. This hurry grows with the scale of the industry, and with the front of the fuel truck competition Intensified, more and more towering.
V. Development proposals
From this point of view, if the new energy automotive industry wants to have a future, it must realize the coordinated advancement of the entire industrial chain, must realize the coordinated advancement of public charging and private charging, must realize the coordinated advancement of the urban and suburban areas, and must realize the charging technology and Collaborative promotion of charging services. Only by fulfilling these four must-haves will the consumer trust be lost after a large-scale exit of the 2020 policy. Otherwise, the future will be completely lost! Therefore, it is recommended that:
1. Substantially reduce the power capacity increase cost of public charging stations, and clearly require that a certain proportion of public charging station land indexes be set aside in each city plan, and taxes should be reduced or exempted for a certain period of time so as to attract more capital continuously. Put into the construction of public charging stations.
2. Accelerate the launch of a model document for the charging infrastructure construction management in the country's unified private user residence. Implement a “centralized approval system†for the power expansion of old residential areas. That is, accumulating a certain number of applications for capacity expansion must focus on replacing old residential areas. Power equipment to meet the needs of renovation.
3. Clearly require all local governments to make overall plans, and rationally allocate the construction of expressways and suburban charging stations according to conditions that are not less than a certain percentage.
4. The new national standard for charging will be upgraded to mandatory standards. At the same time, the relevant provisions for inclusion of charging service information/payment interconnection will be considered, or a national charging information service platform will be developed to achieve full interconnection and interoperability.
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